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University of Iowa
8/9/2007

A new University of Iowa poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Clinton tops among the state's registered voters, followed by U.S. Sen. Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Among a sample of 907 registered voters, Clinton had 18 percent support, an increase of 4.5 percent since the March UI poll. Obama, D-Ill., was second with 13.8 percent, an increase of 2.9 percent. Romney saw the largest increase in support. He was supported by 8.9 percent of all registered respondents this time - nearly double his March support of 4.7 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., tied with Romney, also receiving support from 8.9 percent of registered voters, a drop of more than 3.5 percent from the last poll.

The results are from a random, statewide poll of 907 registered voters in Iowa conducted July 29 through Aug. 5. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.25 percentage points.

REPUBLICAN RESULTS

-- A subsample of 330 registered Republican voters show former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney pulling in 21.8 percent, followed by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 10 percent. Democrat Barack Obama came in third in the GOP sample, supported by 6.7 percent of respondents. The next Republican was Fred Thompson at 5.2 percent.

The UI said the margin of error of the sample is plus or minus 5.25 percentage points.

-- A sample of 303 likely Republican caucus-goers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, found similar results.

From the poll release: "Nearly a third -- 31.1 percent -- of the self-identified Republican caucus goers remained undecided. With 26.9 percent, Romney led his nearest competitor, Giuliani (11.3 percent), by more than 15 percent. [Fred] Thompson was third with 6.5 percent, followed by Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., and Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., both at 4.2 percent. With 3.2 percent, McCain was the only remaining Republican with more than 3 percent." DEMOCRATIC RESULTS

-- Poll results show Hillary Clinton leading among Iowa's registered Democrats, with support from 30 percent of respondents. Barack Obama is next at 20.4 percent, followed by John Edwards at 16 percent and Bill Richardson at 5.5 percent.

The results, from a sample of 469 people polled from July 29 to Aug. 5, have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

-- In a sample of 425 potential caucus goers, Clinton was in the lead at 26.8 percent, followed by Obama at 22.3 percent, Edwards at 22.1 percent and Richardson at 8.5 percent. These results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Among the most likely Democratic caucus goers, a smaller subsample of 319 people, Edwards was in the lead with 26 percent, followed by Clinton at 24.8 percent, Obama at 19.3 percent and Richardson at 9.4 percent.



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