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View from DC: Centrist Boswell looking a little more secure for Democrats in 2010
6/29/2009

By Louis Jacobson
For IowaPolitics.com

Year after year, Republicans dream of ousting U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell from his swing district in central Iowa. But since the Des Moines Democrat first won office in 1996, the GOP has been disappointed every two years.

Now, an array of sources in Iowa and Washington say that Boswell, while not qualifying as safe, starts this cycle as a reasonably strong favorite for 2010.

No significant Democratic primary opposition has emerged, and while two well-known Republicans are looking at challenging Boswell in 2010, neither has committed to a race. The two are former GOP state Chairman Michael Mahaffey, a lawyer in Montezuma, and three-term Polk County Supervisor Robert Brownell.

Mahaffey, who narrowly lost to Boswell for an open House seat in 1996, told IowaPolitics.com he's in the midst of discussing with his family whether he should try again 14 years later. He said he expects to make a decision no later than Labor Day, and closer to mid-July if he can.

Brownell, for his part, confirmed in an interview that he's looking at a run, but he added, "I would say the likelihood is not good."

Meanwhile, Boswell got a break when two senior Democrats in the district -- state House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and state Sen. Jack Hatch, both of Des Moines -- took themselves off the list of possible primary rivals.

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee said that whoever ultimately runs in the Iowa's 3rd District, "Boswell will undoubtedly face a strong challenge in 2010, when he will be forced to defend a voting record that is in lockstep with his party leader [Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.] and completely out of the mainstream for his constituents."

Next year, in the midterm election, Boswell also isn't expected to get a boost from the turnout spike that Iowa Democrats benefited from in 2008, when Barack Obama led the Democratic ticket.

Indeed, Democrats tacitly acknowledged the likelihood of a credible Republican challenger in 2010 when they designated Boswell a member of the "Frontline" program, which gives extra assistance to the candidates most likely to face a serious GOP challenge. However, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman added that Boswell has "made significant inroads with independents in the district" and benefits from a generally pro-Democratic trendline in the state and the district.

"The congressman is raring to go as long as the people continue to give him an opportunity to serve," said Mark Daley, a spokesman for Boswell.

Another factor that gives Boswell a leg up is the influence he's aggregated from his congressional seniority. Boswell, 75, has managed to establish an enviable power base in agriculture – the No. 1 pocketbook issue for many of his constituents.

"The most important thing about Leonard Boswell is that House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson [D-Minn.] has made him the chairman of the most important subcommittee, General Commodities and Risk Management," said Jerry Hagstrom, the ex-president of the North American Agricultural Journalists and an agriculture reporter for CongressDaily.

"This means he is important to almost everybody with money in agriculture – the general farm groups, the commodity groups and even the commodity exchanges and the crop insurance companies," Hagstrom said. "For a guy from Iowa to have cotton beholden to him as well as the northern commodities is quite something. He doesn't have the meat groups [in his jurisdiction] but he previously chaired the subcommittee that covers them."

In agriculture policy, Boswell represents one-third of a powerful Iowa triumvirate in Washington, along with Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Tom Harkin and President Obama's agriculture secretary, former Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack. He even gave up a chance to sit on the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee to keep his agriculture slot, a decision that irked some business interests in the district, a GOP strategist said.

Meanwhile, despite having less seniority on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee than he has on agriculture, Boswell has also used the transportation panel to win points back home.

"He basically rebuilt the highway system in Polk County [which includes Des Moines] and central Iowa," said one Democratic strategist. "That has created jobs in the most populated part of the district." Polk County accounts for about two-thirds of the votes in the 3rd.

Such efforts have helped allow Boswell – who originally hails from rural Iowa – to make significant inroads in the more urban, populous and liberal parts of his district. It's been so successful that Boswell last year held off a primary challenge from his left by former state Rep. Ed Fallon of Des Moines by a roughly 20-point margin.

At the same time, Boswell has managed to satisfy more conservative voters in rural areas, emphasizing his background as a farmer and a fighter pilot and assembling a voting record that's one of the most conservative in the House Democratic Caucus.

"Boswell stays quite centrist, which is a good fit for the district, and he stays pretty visible to his constituents," said David Redlawsk, director of the University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll.

David Wasserman, who tracks House races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said a Mahaffey candidacy could be "encouraging" to the GOP. But even if Boswell earns another term in 2010, he will have to worry about what happens during the reapportionment and redistricting process that will follow the 2010 Census, Wasserman said.

If current models hold, Iowa could lose one of its five House seats due to slower-than-average population growth. This would only make life even tougher for House incumbents, who already must deal with a unique Iowa system that redraws boundaries under non-partisan rules and that often create new districts that force incumbents to run in entirely new territory.

In fact, Boswell himself had to run in a radically different district after the 2000 Census. His choice to run in a more urban district than he had before left him open to a series of credible challenges – first by Des Moines lawyer Stan Thompson, a Republican, in 2002 and 2004, by then-state Senate co-President Jeff Lamberti, a Republican, in 2006 and by Fallon in the 2008 primary.

While Boswell did win each of those contests, some Democrats privately wonder whether he'd be up for running in what could be an entirely new district in 2012. "A lot of Democrats have doubts about whether a 78-year-old Boswell would be able to win in 2012 if, say, his seat is merged with" the more rural district represented by GOP Rep. Tom Latham, Wasserman said.

One Republican strategist in the state said he has heard similar expressions of concern by Democrats.

"There has been a murmur out there for a long time that the Democrats would not be disappointed when he decided to hang up his political cleats," the GOP strategist said. When Boswell leaves, "you'll have quite a frenzy of Democrats running for the seat," he said. Still, the strategist said it appears for now that "the Democrats are going to keep playing nice with him and let him run as long as he wants to."

Boswell's camp dismisses past health problems, including a non-cancerous abdominal tumor that required chemotherapy and that caused a three-month-long absence in 2005. Not only has he "completely rebounded," said Daley, his spokesman, but Boswell continues to fly planes and downhill ski.

Raising the age and health issues in a respectful way remains a challenge for potential rivals. Henderson said Boswell's seniority, combined with his generally agreeable demeanor and his centrist politics, create "some reluctance" among Republicans "to go on a full-throttle attack" against him.

Indeed, Mahaffey said if he challenges Boswell, he wouldn't "attack him personally – that's not a good way to do it. It's better to articulate reasons that Republicans should be elected to Congress. ... My job is to convince people to vote for Mike Mahaffey, not necessarily against Leonard Boswell."


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