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IowaPolitics.com: Iowa at a Glance
1/11/2005

Iowa has maintained its crucial swing state credentials, with a narrowly decided presidential contest and a partisan tie in the Iowa Senate and a near tie in the Iowa House showing how closely divided the state is. The upcoming cycle features an open race for governor and early jockeying by presidential hopefuls on both sides.

Below is a preview from IowaPolitics.com correspondent Chris Dorsey of the political landscape.

THE IOWA LEGISLATURE

--Senate--

The Nov. 2 general election produced, for the first time since the 1930s, a tie in the Iowa Senate. When the 2005 legislative session convenes today, the Iowa Senate will be represented by 25 Republicans and 25 Democrats.

But it's not quite a tie at the moment. Sen. Chuck Larson, R-Cedar Rapids, is expected to complete his tour of duty in Iraq in February and return to the statehouse. Until then, Democrats hold a 25-24 edge. They've elected not to use Larson's absence to their advantage, however, and are treating the situation as a 25-25 tie.

Democrats and Republicans elected leadership in November and will share power for the next two years. The Republican co-leader is Stewart Iverson of Dows. He served as Senate majority leader since 1996. Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, is his party's co-leader; Gronstal has held the Senate minority leader post. Iverson and Gronstal will alternate weeks leading the Senate, but regardless of the leadership from week to week, only bills supported by both men will reach the Senate floor for debate -- a situation some call a recipe for political gridlock.

The Senate president title cannot be shared in the same way. Iowa Code states the position is in line for the governor's seat in the event something were to happen to the governor and lieutenant governor. So there will still be two Senate presidents over the next two years -- Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg and Jeff Lamberti, R-Ankeny will each serve one year as president. Lamberti was the Senate president in 2004.

--House--

Republicans narrowly retained the majority in the Iowa House, dashing Democratic hopes of a takeover. Christopher Rants, R-Sioux City, remains the House speaker. Chuck Gipp, R-Decorah, is the majority leader, and Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque, is the minority leader.

Prior to the deadline to submit nomination paper in March 2003, Democrat Doug Struyk switched parties. The former Democrat was re-elected to his Council Bluffs seat. That switch has allowed the GOP to remain in power, and without it, those in the Iowa House could be facing the same circumstances as their colleagues in Iowa's state Senate. With Struyk, the partisan split is 51-49 in favor of Republicans.

SEE BOTTOM ITEM FOR A RUNDOWN OF TOP ISSUES THIS SESSION

2006 IOWA GOVERNOR'S RACE

U.S. Rep. Jim Nussle became the first to officially register an '06 campaign committee when he registered with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board on Thursday, saying that early contributions exceeding $750, not a concrete decision to run, had triggered the decision. Iowa law dictates that a campaign committee must be formed if contributions in excess of $750 are received.

“To be in full accordance with Iowa law, Iowans for Nussle has been formed while I explore a decision on whether to run for governor,” Nussle said. “I will announce my decision about whether to run for governor this spring.”

In the incumbent's seat, Gov. Tom Vilsack maintains his position that he will not seek a third term. Iowa's governor has captured the national spotlight in the last 12 months, serving as the chair of the Democratic Governors' Association and being mentioned as a Kerry running mate, chair of the Democratic National Committee and even as a 2008 presidential candidate.

But, when asked about future aspirations, the governor likes to turn the attention on the upcoming legislative session and talk about the job he currently holds. He continues to say he has his law license so he can continue to practice law, and that in the meantime he is the governor of Iowa and that is the job he is focusing on at the moment.

The expected vacancy is generating interest from both parties.

Republican Doug Gross challenged Vilsack in 2002 and lost; he is considering a second run. Bob Vanderplatts, a northeastern Iowa businessman, lost to Gross in the GOP primary, and is said to be considering another run for the state's top executive branch post. Both have kept their 2002 campaign committees open, allowing them to raise money to explore running in 2006.

The names of another congressman, Steve King, had surfaced, but King said in December that he is pleased with his position in Washington, D.C. That could leave the GOP race up for grabs among Nussle, Gross and Vanderplatts. State Rep. Danny Carroll, R-Grinnell, also has explored the possibility of a run in 2006.

There are also a handful of candidates who could be seeking the Democratic nomination. Lt. Gov. Sally Pedersen, who is the state's party chair, will not seek a promotion, leaving the door open for Secretary of State Chet Culver and Iowa Department of Economic Development Director Michael Blouin. State Rep. Ed Fallon and Senate co-leader Mike Gronstal have expressed an interest in possibly running for governor in the future as well. Will '06 be the year for either?

2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES

With the 2004 general election barely entering the record books, Iowa activists already are preparing for campaign '08 to begin amid questions in the Democratic Party about Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status.

A year ago, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean entered the stretch run of the '04 Democratic Iowa Caucuses as the projected frontrunner, but Iowans surprised political analysts, pundits and even Dean last January. Iowa voters picked the Democrats' presidential ticket, giving Sen. John Kerry a caucus night victory, while Sen. John Edwards, the eventual vice presidential nominee, garnered second place. However, on election night in November, Kerry could not repeat Vice President Al Gore's 2000 Iowa victory. President George W. Bush bettered his 2000 finish in Iowa and captured the state's seven electoral votes by a narrow margin. That victory earned Republicans an Iowa presidential victory for the first time since Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984.

The Iowa Caucuses came under scrutiny shortly after November's presidential election as national Democratic Party officials looked into the possibility of knocking Iowa and New Hampshire from the first-in-the-nation perch they have enjoyed since the 1970s.

Candidates who made a run in 2004, such as Edwards and Kerry, will likely lobby to keep Iowa first in the nation. Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who's not running for re-election but wading more into national politics, also will want to keep the caucuses first as he mulls a possible run for president. National Dems who want to win back the swing state also may recognize that taking away the status of being first wouldn't help their cause.

Meanwhile, pundits already are projecting who would throw their hats into the ring for the 2008 race, which unlike '04 will include Republicans seeking to replace Bush.

In Democratic circles, the names of Edwards and former First Lady and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton continue to be raised. Kerry has yet to rule out another go as a Democratic presidential candidate and in fact made a post-election visit to Iowa and continues to send e-mail messages to his supporters, including one forward-looking holiday message that said, "We have formed bonds of friendship and commitment that I know will extend far into the future." Sen. Joe Biden, D-Delaware, is also seen as a possible candidate along with Vilsack. Vilsack and Biden were Kerry supporters, and Kerry took a serious look at picking Vilsack as his running mate.

Other names being mentioned include: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (his father Birch made a run in the Iowa Caucuses in 1976), Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell and Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold (National media are taking note of the possibilities for this Midwestern maverick -- Feingold's presidential potential recently warranted reports in the Boston Globe and U.S. News & World Report's Washington Whispers column).

On the GOP side, Lynne Cheney, wife of Vice President Dick Cheney, said on NBC's "Meet the Press" recently that it was very unlikely her husband would seek the commander-in-chief post in 2008. If that holds true, an interesting scenario is created for the GOP. In 2004, after being courted by Kerry as a running mate, Arizona Sen. John McCain joined his 2000 rival Bush on the campaign trail, which some believe was a prelude to a return to the campaign trail in 2008 race. He finished second to Bush in the 2000 Iowa caucuses. Another potential GOP candidate is former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani campaigned for Bush and Iowa lawmakers in October and November in Iowa, and some believe the stumping was also to benefit his future in politics. Other names circulating include: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist from Tennessee, New York Gov. George Pataki, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and, newest on the list, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who plans to tour Iowa and New Hampshire promoting his new book criticizing President Bush's Iraq policies.

U.S. HOUSE

In 2004, Leonard Boswell, D-Des Moines, handed Republican challenger Stanley Thompson his second consecutive loss in the 4th District congressional race -- a contest watched by national political experts. Even after moving from his home area in southern Iowa to Des Moines, Boswell earned a second trip to Washington in his new district. He is the lone Democrat serving from Iowa's five congressional seats.

Congressman Jim Nussle, R-Manchester, who is interested in a possible 2006 Iowa gubernatorial run, was first elected to the Iowa House in 1990. He currently sits on two of the most powerful committees, the House Ways and Means and the House Budget Committee, which he chairs. Nussle retained his House seat in November by defeating former state legislator Bill Gluba, and could enter the governor's race with a warchest of $333,402.

Congressman Tom Latham, R-Alexander, was elected to his sixth term in Congress with a win over Paul Johnson, another former Iowa lawmaker. Davenport's Jim Leach maintained a firm grip on his congressional seat, posting an impressive victory over challenger David Franker.

In the 5th Congressional District, Steve King, R-Kiron, earned another term in D.C. by defeating E. Joyce Schulte of Creston. That victory was gained with more ease than his 2002 run. During his first bid, he didn't win a clear majority in the GOP primary and didn't find out he was running until he was picked at the District Convention. From there, King won the general election and vacated his Iowa Senate seat.

U.S. SENATE

U.S. Sen. Charles Grassley had more than $6 million at his disposal in 2004 to easily defeat Democratic challenger Art Small, a former state legislator and gain another six years in the Senate.

Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democrat, was re-elected to the Senate in 2002 by defeating Congressman Greg Ganske. Harkin raised nearly $8.4 million from 1997-2002, according to opensecrets.org. With more than $300,000 cash on hand, Harkin will have plenty of time to kick his fund-raising into full gear before he faces a challenger in 2008.

TOP IOWA ISSUES

Vilsack Sets Ambitious Agenda

In setting up his agenda for what could be the final two years of his administration, Gov. Tom Vilsack used his Condition of the State address to propose

*investing $800 million in economic growth over the next five years – in return for 50,000 jobs;
*expanding access to quality preschool with a $39 million "down payment" on a program that would eventually offer preschool access to all Iowa children;
*raising the cigarette tax by an unspecified amount and using the extra money to fund Medicaid and to start a critical care fund that would enable doctors to stay in high-risk specialties by lowering malpractice costs.

Political Stock Report -- 2005 Legislative Preview Edition

Rising

Values Fund
What will it take to create an economic stimulus package in Iowa? The Legislature couldn't come to an agreement in a special session last summer, and when Dem Gov. Tom Vilsack disagreed with the lawmakers' Values Fund decision in the 2003 session, he tried to fix it with his veto pen. Last year, the Iowa Supreme Court told the Legislature to start over after it ruled the governor misused his line-item veto authority to strike the regulatory and tax reform language from the bill. When lawmakers tried to reach an agreement in special session, Democrats couldn't support the GOP's desire to keep the reforms in place. Republicans argued economic development requires more than throwing money at companies to lure and/or keep them in Iowa. When push came to shove, lawmakers approved meeting the promised financial obligations, but did not address the fund's long-term prospects. The Legislature said it would take up the issue again when the 2005 session convenes today. Now that the GOP's power is eroded, the Values Fund proposal requires bi-partisan legislative support. Throw in the fact Vilsack isn't seeking a third term, and the lame-duck governor has virtually nothing to lose by vetoing a bill if it doesn't meet his desired criteria.

Potential funding strategies such as bonding or using federal dollars are being discussed to finance an economic development strategy for Iowa. Yet, it boils down to the Republicans refusing to support any language that doesn't create a three-pronged stimulus package, which includes their desired business regulation changes and tax reforms.

Legislative candidates campaigned on the importance of job creation and bolstering the state's economy, and the Values Fund was among the hot button campaign topics. Making it a reality will mean reaching across the aisle, which lawmakers did in 2003. The vote on the Values Fund bill, prior to the governor's veto, received 75 votes in the Republican-run Iowa House.

With the session under way, lawmakers will have the opportunity to make campaign promises a reality -- bringing both chambers together to develop a funding stream and policy language each party supports.

Education
Nearly 64 percent of the state's budget supports K-12 education and the regent universities. Democrats and Republicans both agree education is an important line item, but the disagreement in recent years is about funding allowable growth -- the percentage by which state school districts are allowed to expand their budgets. Democrats proposed a 6 percent hike in 2004, and Republicans brought a 2 percent offer to the table. When the governor got involved, negotiating between the parties resulted in a 4 percent increase.

Allowable growth is expected to find a front a spot on the front burner again in 2005. Vilsack also expressed a desire to boost funding to early childhood education, which could take more money from the state's coffers unless lawmakers approve a tax increase. Republicans fought the governor on his tax increase proposals in 2004, but they might not have the votes to prevent them this year.

Medicaid
Going into Jan. 10, the governor and Legislature anticipate a shortfall in Medicaid funding. Federal funding accounts for more than 60 percent of the state's Medicaid funding, but that doesn't negate the increase in costs. Lawmakers are looking at how they narrow the gap on the $170 million shortfall they could be facing in the next two years. Higher-than-projected revenues could ease some of that burden, but the increase in revenues comes with its share of dilemmas. Lawmakers stressed the need to repay funds it borrowed from in the past. Lawmakers from both chambers are proposing reforms to keep the program viable while reducing costs. Discussions have also resurfaced about doubling the state's cigarette tax, which is 36 cents per pack. That could generate more than an estimated $80 million in new revenues. Republicans opposed the hike in the "sin" tax last year, but may be forced to review it closely this year to balance the growing Medicaid costs and shortage in federal and state funding.

Mixed

Bi-partisan cooperation
Following the November election, the Iowa Senate fell into a 25-25 tie. However, Sen. Chuck Larson, R-Cedar Rapids, remains in Iraq on military duty. He is expected to return in late February or early March. Until his return, Democrats will hold a 25-24 edge. Last year Senate co-leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, said that it was not in the party's interest to take advantage of Republicans being short one vote in the early weeks of the legislative session. Even before Larson returns, any bill would need 26 votes to pass. The tie in the Senate, which is the first since the mid-1930s, could break new ground in Iowa. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle said they face a new era in Iowa politics, and much can be gained from bi-partisan cooperation. If the two sides cannot work and play together in the coming two years, that may have a significant bearing on the 2006 election cycle and who gains control of the Iowa Senate, the Iowa House, and even the governor's office.

Falling

Social issues
Marriage between a man and a woman, creating law making it more difficult to file for a divorce and child custody laws between couples who have split up were issues debated last year at the Iowa Statehouse. But what lies in store for 2005? An estimated 90 percent of the bills introduced at the Capitol receive bi-partisan support. They are not heavily debated, and do not receive much media attention. However, bills involving social issues have fallen into the other 10 percent recently, receiving a great deal of media and public attention. Due to the tie in the Iowa Senate, many lawmakers do not anticipate proposed bills such as marriage between a man and woman and strengthening the marriage bond being debated or even introduced in the 2005 session. This is mainly because any both the Democratic and the Republican leader have to agree for any bill to move to the floor for debate.

Corrections, public safety
Cuts have wreaked havoc on the state patrol and Iowa prisons in recent years. Those two entities want some funds restored to their budgets, but may have trouble getting their wish. The patrol especially has seen the number of troopers dwindle in the past five years. Staffing levels at some of the posts are the lowest since the Dwight D. Eisenhower administration. While the number of inmates is growing at some of Iowa's correctional facilities, the funds funneled into them is not. Staffing levels have also been cuts in corrections, and that department wants some help and attention in the budgeting process this year.

Methamphetamine
Vilsack wants Iowa to be a national leader, but not in methamphethamine production. The governor is expected to push for laws making it more difficult for manufacturers of the illegal stimulant to buy psedoephedrine products from over-the-counter retailers. Psuedoephedrine is a key component of methamphetamine. The laws he is discussing are similar to those passed in Oklahoma, and they have already had an impact in reducing the number of meth labs being reported in in that state.


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